FOREWARN present Monthly Anticipation Café – February, 2022

Discussant:

Dr. Dewan Abdul Quadir, Senior Consultant, DoM, DU

Dr. Md. Abdul Mannan, Meteorologist, BMD

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, BRRI

Dr. Ruksana Haque Rimi, Professor, MBSTU

Mostofa Kamal, PhD Student, SU Canada

Session Moderator: Iftekhar Ahmed, Senior Reporter, Prothom Alo

Ashraful Haque, Coordinator- FOREWARN Bangladesh

Other Participants: Marwa Tasnim, Analyst, START FUND

Javed Meandad, FOREWARN Bangladesh

Nafis Fuad, Caritas Bangladesh

Points of Discussion: 

• Have you noticed a difference in the weather in 2021 compared to the country's current weather and climate? What is the distinction and why is it significant?
• Is there any noticeable effect?
• The current weather in 2022 began differently than in past years; was it less than normal? - Is there a lot of rain? What is the explanation for this? Is the relationship between local, regional, and global variables understood?
• How is the approaching pre-monsoon or Baishakh-Jaistha month likely to unfold? What type of rain and thunderstorms are possible. How is it possible that it is hot? How likely is it that you will suffer from heat stroke?
• How will monsoons and floods be affected?
• Is there any possibility of announcing cyclones and tidal surges in advance? Is low pressure and storms in the Bay of Bengal can occur at any time between April and May and November and December? How is the Bay of Bengal's condition?"

Asharaful Haque commenced the discussion with an introduction of the attendees. The participants contributed their perspectives and expertise to this conversation by addressing the above mentioned questions. In accordance with these, Iftekahar Ahmed moderated the whole session.

Dr. Abdul Mannan started the conversation by describing the unusual behaviour of the land and ocean weather sources last year during the Covid-19 event. The ocean sources are not as unusual as in previous years due to the absence of a big cyclone, but there was the introduction of a super cyclone titled Amphan that originated in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh has a history of suffering catastrophic loss and damage to property and life as a result of super cyclones in 1970 and 1991, but Amphan was unable to cause such devastation due to the country's well-preparedness for disasters. On the other hand, the winter season of the previous year, dubbed mild winter season, was not quite as significant. In the month of January of last year, only one cold wave was sparked. Compared to previous years, 2022's winter is deemed milder, as no significant cold wave has occurred till February. Only the residents of Bangladesh's northwestern region suffer mildly from short-lived cold waves, while the rest of the nation has remained mostly unaffected. In the instance of thunderstorms, Bangladesh was hit by powerful thunderbolts last year, resulting in fatalities and property damage. Last year's pattern of thunderstorms was uncommon, and this brief occurrence caused significant harm to Bangladesh's agricultural economy.

Dr. Mannan predicted that the future year of 2022 will also see an unprecedented weather phenomenon. He emphasises the two days of torrential rainfall in February, which surpasses the overall monthly precipitation projection for that month by more than 13%. Compared to the previous year's rainfall, 2022 exhibits more brief periods of severe rainfall, which often results in a significant increase in precipitation over the next several days. Western disturbance is the primary cause of this uncommon phenomenon, which results in massive agricultural property loss and devastation. The concentration of rainfall caused by the western disturbances has migrated from the south-western to the north-eastern parts of Bangladesh. Monsoon season also follows a different pattern than in the past, posing a threat to Bangladesh's agricultural productivity. Precipitation during the monsoon season has decreased over the previous three years. 2022's monsoon season will also exhibit unusual patterns. Bangladesh experienced a poor La Niño year. La Nino has traditionally been associated with wet (or flood) conditions in South Asian nations, which suggests that Bangladesh and the wider Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin systems will have above-normal rainfall. That weak La Nino had an effect on the strength and timing of the monsoon, resulting in little rainfall throughout the monsoon season. Additionally, as a result of the cyclone's peripheral influence, non-land falling cyclone Jawad induced a short spell of torrential rainfall in December of last year. As the landfall pattern of the previous two years' cyclones demonstrates, there has been a change in the landfall location to the south-western part of Bangladesh. The pattern indicates that this would also be the location of the cyclone's landfall in India. Nonetheless, Dr. Mannan shared that the unique weather events are the consequences of the global warming trend and climate change effect. The temperature trend line and observed temperature indicate that the following year of 2022 would have an increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius over the previous year. As a result, Bangladesh's warming episode is expected to continue, resulting in a rise in short-lived powerful uncommon occurrences in the coming days of 2022.

Following the conversation, Mr. Mostofa Kamal underlined the need of weather forecasting for short-term weather occurrences and the importance of predicting message transmission channels to minimise loss and harm. Mr. Kamal revealed that, based on multiple seasonal to sub-seasonal indexes, the rate of precipitation and soil moisture in every district in Bangladesh is now higher than the climatological norm. As a result, the Nor'wester will begin early, about in March, and will be considerably stronger and more frequent than last year. Regarding the weak La Nino situation, it will revert to neutral in April, resulting in severe flooding. In the case of cyclones, the current sea level environment is conducive to their development, and Bangladesh is expected to see a pre-monsoon cyclone this year. Dr. Ruksana Haque coincided totally with Mr. Kamal's assessment of short-term weather phenomena and instead concentratds on long-term climatic severe weather events. She emphasised how global warming is increasingly altering the pattern of pre- and post-monsoon rainfall. As a result, the climate of drought-prone areas has shifted toward wetting conditions. She underlined the atypical incident that occurred in Rangpur district last year, when unusually heavy rainfall (400mm) occurred during the dry season. Dr. Ruksana emphasised that if the process of global temperature rise continues, the amount of short-term strong precipitation will grow. As a result, Bangladesh would see this type of odd and unexpected precipitation in the coming days of 2022. Nonetheless, Dr. Ruksana highlighted the importance of integrating accessible international weather forecasts and implementing them into Bangladesh's policymaking in order to address short-term extreme weather events. Additionally, leveraging the channel of knowledge distribution through the media is crucial for minimising loss and damage to life and property.

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman discussed Bangladesh's projected temperature rise over the next 50 years. Bangladesh's warming phase is concentrated, with the possibility of occupying the maximum temperature occurring in the south-western to south-eastern and middle northern to northern parts of the country. Additionally, the lowest temperature in Bangladesh is trending northward from the south. As a result of this altering weather pattern, Bangladesh's food security would be impacted. To address this issue, weather-adaptive smart agronomy development is required, and the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute has already begun piloting certain weather-adaptive crop development projects that use weather forecasts. He discussed the results of weather prediction advisory cropping, which indicate a 50% increase in crop productivity, a 20% drop in production costs, and a 30% rise in farmers' net income. He emphasised that if farmers in Bangladesh are taught to weather forecasting technologies, agricultural output in Bangladesh will grow significantly. As a result, technical advancements and the inclusion of weather forecasting are required to maintain sustainable agricultural output.

Dr. Dewan Abdul Quadir highlighted the need of forecasting extreme weather events at the Upazila and Union levels in order to mitigate loss and damage. He highlighted the involvement of volunteer organisations that will also assist with weather forecasting at the local level. Forecasting at the local level for seven to ten days will assist farmers in minimising their losses and damages. He also underlined the importance of using weather forecast models from developed nations in order to get a more accurate forecast and overcome local technology obstacles. He focused on the critical nature of technical growth for Bangladesh's present meteorological system. Integration of global organisation's long-term forecasting models and replication in the context of Bangladesh is expected to provide recommendations for weather events. Additional research and meteorologists are required to deal with forthcoming weather events. Forecasting at a more specific level is necessary, as it will benefit farmers and victims significantly.