Health
Dengue fever is the most common arthropod-borne viral (arbovirus) disease in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Esteva and Vargas (1998) found that the vector population has a constant recruitment rate, which depends upon the fractions of eggs and larvae that mature to the adult stage, and a constant per capita mortality.
FOREWARN Bangladesh Health experts group conducted a dengue risk study in early 2020 that investigated several climate variables such as rainfall, temperature, humidity and historical case analysis from 2000 to 2019. This allowed the FOREWARN Health Expert Group to determine the peak time period of dengue outbreak and develop a surveillance model that allowed the team to discover dengue hotspots.
The early actions implemented included a mosquito extermination program in dengue-hotspots, dengue diagnosis kits in local hospitals, training of medical and non-medical staff on clinical management and a specialised dengue remedial ward for vulnerable communities.
Forecast
The temporal distribution analysis of dengue patient admissions indicates a peak in August, contrary to the 2018 peak in September. The average pattern underscores a critical insight: minimum cases during the dry season gradually rise through pre-monsoon, reaching a peak in the monsoon. This highlights the importance of early actions, ideally by mid-March, considering the 45-day lead time before cases gain momentum in May. The progression of rainfall and dengue cases aligns in Bangladesh.2019's outbreak might have been influenced by unusually heavy pre-monsoon rainfall and elevated temperatures during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods. Efficient awareness campaigns and timely interventions are crucial to mitigate the impact of dengue, emphasising the need for proactive measures and preparedness well in advance of the peak season.
Impact
The severe 2019 dengue outbreak marked a record year with over a million cases reported in South-East Asia. Dengue, the most impactful arbo-viral infection globally, saw its first outbreak in Bangladesh in June 2000, reaching a peak of 101,354 cases in 2019. A survey in Dhaka city identified a high presence of Aedes mosquitoes in March 2019, with larvae found in various water sources. A study revealed a higher number of patients in areas with hospitals. Insecticide introduction in July was assumed to improve the situation, but patients were still found in lesser-risk zones. Dhaka, with 41 hospitals, reported over 50% of cases, followed by Khulna and Chittagong. Economic losses for hospitalised patients were estimated at 450.82 crores BDT, considering reported cases, but the actual number may be higher. Challenges included a shortage of doctors, nurses, beds, and dengue testing kits. Despite free treatment in government hospitals, private hospitals charged patients.